The largest nation in the world is about to shrink. China represents more than sixth in the world’s population.However, after four extraordinary decades during which the Chinese population increased from 660 million to 1.4 billion, its population is on the right track to refuse this year, for the first time since the great famine of 1959-1961.
According to the latest figures from the Chinese National Statistics Bureau, the Chinese population increased from 1,41212 billion to only 1,41260 billion in 2021 a record increase of only 480,000, a simple fraction of annual growth of eight million there is About a decade.Although a reluctance to have children in the face of strict anti-cook measures could have contributed to the slowdown in births, it has been coming for years.The total fertility rate of China (births per woman) was 2.6 at the end of the 80s well above 2.1 necessary to replace deaths.
It is between 1.6 and 1.7 since 1994 and slipped to 1.3 in 2020 and only 1.15 in 2021.By way of comparison, in Australia and the United States, the total fertility rate is 1.6 birth per woman. In aging Japan, it is 1.3.This happened despite the abandonment of its policy in a single child in 2016 and the introduction of a policy of three children, supported by taxes and other incentives, last year.
Theories differ on the reasons why Chinese women remain reluctant to have children in the face of state incentives.One consists in having used small families, another implies the increase in the cost of living, another implies an increase in the age of marriage, which delays births and eases the desire to have children .
In addition, China has fewer women of prosecutor than what we could expect.Limited to have a single child since 1980, many couples have opted for a boy, raising the sex relationship in the birth of 106 boys per 100 girls (the report in most of the rest of the world) at 120, and in some provinces at 130.Narrowing, on reasonable assumptions
The total population of China increased by a minimum after the family of only 0.34 in 1,000 last year. The projections prepared by a team from the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences fell it this year for the first time after the 0.49 in a thousand family.The turning point arrived a decade earlier than expected.No more recently than 2019, China Academy of Social Sciences expected the population to peak in 2029, with 1.44 billion.
The 2019 United Nations 2019 report expected the peak later, in 2031-32, or 1.46 billion.The Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences team predicts an annual average of 1.1% after 2021, pushing the Chinese population to 587 million in 2100, less than half of what it is today.
The reasonable hypotheses behind this prediction are that the total fertility rate of China slips from 1.15 to 1.1 by 2030 and remains there until 2100.The rapid drop will have a deep impact on the Chinese economy.The Chinese Ouning Age population culminated in 2014 and should be reduced to less than a third of this peak by 2100. The elderly population of China (aged 65 and over) should continue to climb during the Most of this time, passing population to 2080.Older and much younger
This means that although there are currently 100 people at the workers’ age available to support every 20 elderly people, at 2100, 100 Chinese age opening will have to support up to 120 elderly Chinese.The average annual decrease of 1.73% in the Chinese working age population opens the ground for much lower economic growth, unless productivity increases rapidly.
Higher labor costs, driven by rapidly prisoner of the workforce, should push manufacturing to low margin and high intensity of labor outside China to abundant countries like Vietnam, Bangladesh and India.The manufacturing labor costs in China are already twice as high as in Vietnam.More attentive, less manufacturing