Though events are continuously unfolding in Afghanistan, the direction has been clear since Assumption — the Taliban has been consolidating its power. the planet is keen to understand the character , structure and policy direction of its government. But the Taliban has never been during a hurry.
It waited 20 years for the us to go away Afghanistan. For years, it engaged better of the western diplomats at Doha without giving any serious concessions or agreeing for a ceasefire. within the coming days or weeks, some ‘interim’ government are going to be in situ . But still the planet will never make certain about truth nature of its dealings with international terrorist groups or its treatment of girls and minorities.
Traditionally, the Taliban has not compromised on its core beliefs. However, it’s clearly understood the facility of the media and western sensibilities. Given this, its spokespersons will still use eager global media to disseminate politically-correct views.
In the meanwhile, Pakistan, China, Russia, Turkey, Qatar, etc. will facilitate the Taliban’s global engagements. the ecu Union (EU) and its member states have already agreed for an “operational engagement” with the new government through a joint EU presence in Kabul co-ordinated by the ecu External Action Service. The uk also intends direct engagements with the Taliban.
India’s declared policy is ‘wait and watch’. Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla has asserted that though New Delhi has had only limited conversation with the Taliban, it seems to be ‘reasonable on India’s concerns”.
For those that are conversant in the geopolitics of the region, it’s reasonable to assume that Afghanistan, under the Taliban, are going to be an extension of Pakistan. For India, there’s no got to pretend or plan otherwise. the planet knows about the Taliban’s linkages with Islamabad. it’s not that the West is naïve, except for most of them the Taliban isn’t an immediate threat at the instant . This ‘realisation’ — coming after 20 years of US-led intervention — is reflected when The Economist says in an article that “Afghanistan may be a backwater, with little geopolitical or economic significance”.
For India, Afghanistan’s major strategic significance has been within the context of inauspicious India-Pakistan ties. Once Kabul is closely linked with the Pakistani State, its own strategic significance will decline. However, India’s Pakistan problem will become bigger and maybe harder to handle.
The problem goes to be further complicated thanks to Taliban-Pakistan-China axis also because the Russian, Turkish and Iranian support to the Taliban. On top of it, the direct ‘engagement’ by the EU and a few of its member states will provide de facto legitimacy to Pakistani design in South Central Asia.
Many countries are already turning to Islamabad for help in Afghanistan. within the previous couple of days, foreign ministers of Germany, Netherlands and therefore the UK have visited Pakistan. Many western nations are worried about Afghan refugees turning to their countries.
Most Indian analyses of the Taliban indicate one thing — its linkages with Pakistan and therefore the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). this is often a longtime fact, reinforced with the ISI chief’s recent visit to Kabul. The question is how does New Delhi affect the Taliban given this background?
For this, we’d like to review more carefully the Taliban’s nationalist ideology, justice system and interpretation of Afghan culture and traditions. New Delhi also must remember that for the past 10 years the Taliban has been controlling a big a part of rural Afghanistan. This understanding are going to be useful within the coming years for any meaning engagement in Afghanistan.
For India, Afghanistan has also been important for regional connectivity. Investments at the Chabahar port in Iran and therefore the Zaranj-Delaram Road in Afghanistan were a part of the strategy to bypass Pakistan. This approach is not any longer valid. So, India has got to mapped out its connectivity issues with China and Pakistan first before thinking of any connectivity in Afghanistan.
New Delhi remains mainly trying to co-ordinate its Afghanistan policy with the US. But the US and therefore the broader West will have a really limited interest in Afghanistan within the coming years. India’s strategic and economic interests in Afghanistan will now need to be dealt within its complex ties with Pakistan and China. almost like Pakistan, the Taliban issue also features a huge significance in domestic politics. So domestic politics taking up India’s Afghanistan policy can’t be ruled out.